Every race we cover.
US federal, state, and major foreign elections tracked on Polymarket and Kalshi. Each page has live odds, editorial context, methodology, and direct links to the source markets.
Active 1
Upcoming 48
Katie Hobbs won the 2022 race by 0.7 points — the closest Arizona gubernatorial race in modern history. She is running for re-election. Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee, has floated another run; Lake's 2024 US Senate loss complicates that calculus.
Gavin Newsom is term-limited, opening California's most competitive Democratic primary in a generation. The general election is a formality — the D+13 partisan lean means the Democratic nominee is the heavy Polymarket favorite — but the primary field is crowded and genuinely contested.
Ron DeSantis's term-limited exit opens one of the most competitive Republican primaries in the country. Florida's recent shift to R+3 makes the general less competitive than it was in 2018 or 2022, but the GOP primary features a high-profile field including Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, and possibly First Lady Casey DeSantis.
Brian Kemp is term-limited. Georgia has shifted from R+6 to R+3 since 2016, and Stacey Abrams — who lost to Kemp twice — has the option of a third run. The Republican primary features Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and AG Chris Carr, two distinct Republican profiles.
JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.
Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Michigan is genuinely a tossup — EVEN on Cook PVI — and the 2026 race is the most competitive open-seat contest outside Florida. Democrats will nominate a candidate to succeed Whitmer; Republicans have a strong field including US Rep. John James.
Kathy Hochul's 2022 6-point win over Lee Zeldin was the tightest New York gubernatorial race since 1994. Her 2026 re-election is Democratic-favored but not safe — D+10 PVI pricing could be offset by a weak incumbency profile and a strong Republican recruit.
Mike DeWine is term-limited. Ohio has shifted Republican, but open-seat gubernatorial races historically tighten from incumbent-landslide baselines. The Republican primary is the decisive contest, with Vivek Ramaswamy the current Polymarket favorite.
Josh Shapiro's 14.8-point 2022 win was the largest Pennsylvania gubernatorial margin in 72 years, and his approval ratings have stayed above 55%. Shapiro is running for re-election. Barring a Republican recruit upset, 2026 is his to lose — though he may also run for 2028 president, creating governance speculation.
Greg Abbott is expected to seek a fourth term, though the possibility of a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick adds uncertainty. The general election is Republican-leaning but reliably within single digits; Texas Democrats have closed the gap from 13 points (2014) to 11 (2022) and continue to invest statewide.
Tony Evers is undecided on a third term. Wisconsin is R+2 and the gubernatorial margin has been under 4 points in three consecutive cycles. If Evers runs, the race is a narrow Democratic hold; if he retires, it is a genuine tossup.
36 state governor offices are up in 2026. Major open seats (California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio) are term-limited incumbents and feature the most competitive primaries.
Los Angeles Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
All 435 House seats are up in 2026. Control of the chamber is the headline question; Polymarket prices the outcome as a single market with daily updates.
Sullivan is a safely-favored incumbent in a ranked-choice state. Independent or Democratic insurgent potential is always on the table in Alaska but rarely materializes at Senate level.
Kelly is Arizona Democrats’ strongest statewide incumbent. His astronaut profile and disciplined campaign style have produced two wins. Republican recruitment quality determines margin.
Bennet is a safe-favorite incumbent in a state that has trended Democratic. Republicans have had recruitment difficulties here through the 2010s and 2020s.
Scott's 2024 win (12.9-point margin) mirrors Florida's rightward shift. Democrats have essentially written off the state for statewide races in the short term. Primary is the interesting question.
Ossoff is the 2026 cycle’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Brian Kemp’s possible entry would make this the marquee race of 2026. Georgia is genuinely tossup (R+3 PVI, but Biden-2020 + Trump-2024 switches in back-to-back cycles).
Risch is safe; Idaho is among the most Republican states in the nation.
Ernst won a tougher-than-expected 2020 race. Iowa has shifted right in the Trump era; Republicans should hold absent a candidate-quality collapse. Democrats are recruiting State Auditor Rob Sand, who has won statewide.
McConnell's retirement creates the cycle's most interesting Republican primary. Kentucky is safely Republican, but the primary choice shapes Senate leadership dynamics in Washington.
Cassidy's impeachment vote in 2021 draws primary challenges. Louisiana's jungle primary format means intra-party dynamics dominate this race.
Collins is the GOP's most durable New England incumbent. Her 2020 re-election (8.6-point win) exceeded every poll and model. If Governor Janet Mills runs, the race becomes genuinely competitive; otherwise Collins remains a solid favorite.
Peters’ retirement creates a Democratic open-seat problem in an EVEN state. Michigan just flipped Republican in the 2024 Senate race (Rogers-Slotkin was 0.3 points). 2026 Senate + 2026 Governor will both be competitive.
Smith is the narrowly-favored incumbent. Minnesota has tightened in the Trump era (Trump won the state in 2024) but retains a narrow Democratic lean. Republican recruitment remains thin.
Daines is favored but Montana occasionally bucks its partisan lean (Tester held a Senate seat through 2024). Democratic recruitment is the decisive variable.
Rosen just won 2024 by 1.6 points despite Trump carrying Nevada. The state has shifted faster right than most observers expected. Rosen's 2026 re-election is a genuine tossup.
Shaheen's retirement is a major 2026 Democratic vulnerability. Governor Chris Sununu (R) is the strongest potential Republican recruit. If he runs, this race becomes a tossup.
Tillis, who has drawn conservative ire for infrastructure and immigration votes, faces a primary challenge and potentially former Governor Roy Cooper in the general. Cooper would make this a top-tier Democratic pickup target.
Sherrod Brown's seat (won 2024 by Bernie Moreno after Brown's loss) is technically open under a different schedule, but the adjacent 2026 Ohio Senate cycle features Vance-era dynamics. Republican-lean in modern Ohio; Democrats have had candidate-quality problems statewide for a decade.
Fetterman's first re-election. His profile has shifted more moderate than his 2022 campaign; Republicans will test whether that alienates the Democratic base. Swing-state fundamentals apply.
Cornyn is the GOP leadership's preferred 2026 incumbent. Texas remains Republican-lean but tightening. Allred's 2024 performance (8.5-point loss to Cruz) is the Democratic ceiling to watch.
Capito is uncontested within the GOP and faces no Democratic threat. Election-day formality.
The 2026 US Senate election will determine control of the chamber for the second half of Trump's term. 33 seats are up, with majority control in play.
Chicago Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
2027 South Korean Presidential Election. Five-year cycle.
2027 French Presidential Election. Macron term-limited; wide open field expected.
Houston Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
Philadelphia Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
2028 Australian Federal Election. Standard three-year cycle from 2025.
The 2028 Democratic presidential primary will select the Democratic nominee. Expected strong field includes several governors, Cabinet members, and senators.
With Trump term-limited, the 2028 Republican presidential primary is open. Leading contenders are drawn from current Cabinet, governors, and senators.
2028 Mexican Presidential Election. Six-year cycle; Sheinbaum term ends 2030 but primary dynamics begin early.
The 2028 US presidential election will choose the 47th president. Trump is term-limited. The Republican and Democratic fields will form through 2026-2027 with primaries beginning early 2028.
2029 UK General Election. By 2029 at latest; snap election possible earlier.
2029 German Federal Election. Standard four-year cycle.
2029 Canadian Federal Election. By 2029 latest; earlier possible.
Resolved 4
Boston Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
New Jersey holds its gubernatorial election in odd-numbered years. The 2025 race follows Murphy, who is term-limited.
The 2025 New York City mayoral election occurs on November 4, 2025. The Democratic primary in June is historically decisive in general-election terms.
Virginia holds its gubernatorial election in odd-numbered years following the presidential cycle. The 2025 race follows Youngkin, who is term-limited (VA governors can serve only consecutive terms).