Policy markets.
Shutdowns, Fed decisions, court vacancies, tariffs, wars. Every non-election market Political Forecasts tracks, each with live odds, context, and historical precedent.
A cluster of Polymarket markets tracks specific tariff decisions by the Trump administration in 2026.
Polymarket tracks the probability of major crypto regulation bills passing Congress in 2026.
The federal debt ceiling periodically requires Congressional action. Polymarket prices both the resolution date and default risk.
The US federal government fiscal year ends September 30. If Congress fails to pass appropriations (or a continuing resolution), agencies shut down. Polymarket prices this outcome continuously.
Jerome Powell's Fed Chair term ends May 2026. The president nominates the successor, subject to Senate confirmation. Multiple candidates trade in parallel.
Polymarket operates ongoing markets on the next Supreme Court vacancy. Age, health, and political considerations drive pricing.
Polymarket operates several Russia–Ukraine ceasefire markets tracking different timelines and definitions.
Polymarket prices TikTok ban and divestment outcomes throughout the 2026 regulatory cycle.
Polymarket and Kalshi both price recession markets based on NBER declaration or equivalent technical criteria.
Polymarket prices various Iran-related strike markets, ranging from direct military action to sanctions escalation.