2028 US Presidential Election Odds
The 2028 US presidential election will choose the 47th president. Trump is term-limited. The Republican and Democratic fields will form through 2026-2027 with primaries beginning early 2028.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Candidates
President of the United States (second term)
Vice President of the United States
Governor of Florida
Former US Ambassador to the UN
US Secretary of State
US Senator from Texas
Candidate, Governor of Ohio
Former Governor of Virginia
Governor of Texas
Governor of Georgia
Former Vice President of the United States
Governor of California
Governor of Pennsylvania
Governor of Michigan
Former US Secretary of Transportation
Governor of Maryland
Governor of Illinois
US Representative (NY-14)
House Minority Leader
US Senator from Vermont
US Senator from New Jersey
This page tracks the 2028 us presidential election across prediction markets. Polymarket typically opens a binary or categorical market for the headline question — who wins — and then adds a cluster of satellite markets: party control, primary winners, vote margins. Kalshi's political-event contracts add CFTC-regulated US access to many of the same questions.
Editorial expansion lives alongside the live odds: historical context, candidate biographies, key calendar dates, and comparisons between Polymarket's implied probability and polling aggregators such as 538, RealClearPolitics, Cook Political Report, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.
The last open-seat US presidential race was 2016. Prediction markets have covered presidential contests since at least 2004 (Iowa Electronic Markets) and have generally tracked the eventual winner closer than pundit consensus, though 2016 and 2024 both saw market divergence from media narrative.
Trade or track this race live. We earn a small commission when readers sign up through our links — it does not influence editorial coverage.
Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? | No | 87% | — | $998 | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 95% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
- Primary filing window opens for most states
- Candidate fundraising reports (Q2 2027) begin shaping expectations
- Iowa caucus (approx.)
- Super Tuesday (approx.)
- Primary calendar concludes
- Republican National Convention
- Democratic National Convention
- General Election Day
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 US Presidential Election?+
When is the 2028 US Presidential Election?+
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal