2026 Governor
Election Odds.
State-by-state Polymarket and Kalshi odds for every 2026 gubernatorial race. Eleven states carry the national narrative — six are open seats, three are tossups. Below: live odds, race ratings, candidates, and the editorial context for each.
Race ratings
| State | Incumbent | Status | PVI | 2022 margin | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | Katie Hobbs | running | R+2 | D+0.7 | Tossup | Odds → |
| California | Gavin Newsom | term limited | D+13 | D+18.6 | Solid D | Odds → |
| Florida | Ron DeSantis | term limited | R+3 | R+19.4 | Likely R | Odds → |
| Georgia | Brian Kemp | term limited | R+3 | R+7.5 | Lean R | Odds → |
| Illinois | JB Pritzker | undecided | D+7 | D+12.5 | Likely D | Odds → |
| Michigan | Gretchen Whitmer | term limited | EVEN | D+10.6 | Tossup | Odds → |
| New York | Kathy Hochul | running | D+10 | D+5.8 | Lean D | Odds → |
| Ohio | Mike DeWine | term limited | R+6 | R+25.4 | Lean R | Odds → |
| Pennsylvania | Josh Shapiro | running | R+1 | D+14.8 | Likely D | Odds → |
| Texas | Greg Abbott | undecided | R+5 | R+11.0 | Likely R | Odds → |
| Wisconsin | Tony Evers | undecided | R+2 | D+3.4 | Tossup | Odds → |
Six open seats reshape the map.
Open-seat gubernatorial races historically revert toward a state's partisan baseline — incumbent advantage vanishes, and the Cook PVI tends to reassert itself. California (D+13), Florida (R+3), Ohio (R+6), Georgia (R+3), Michigan (EVEN), and Texas (R+5, if Abbott retires) all see open or open-probable races.
Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin: coin flips.
Three states have structural partisan-lean within two points of even. All three had sub-4-point gubernatorial margins in 2022. Prediction markets will price these as genuine coin flips for most of 2026, with the final weeks seeing dramatic movement based on debate performance and late polling.
Track all 36 gubernatorial races live on Polymarket and Kalshi. US readers: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 states for many of these markets.
State-by-state
Arizona Governor 2026
Katie Hobbs won the 2022 race by 0.7 points — the closest Arizona gubernatorial race in modern history. She is running for re-election. Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee, has floated another run; Lake's 2024 US Senate loss complicates that calculus.
California Governor 2026
Gavin Newsom is term-limited, opening California's most competitive Democratic primary in a generation. The general election is a formality — the D+13 partisan lean means the Democratic nominee is the heavy Polymarket favorite — but the primary field is crowded and genuinely contested.
Florida Governor 2026
Ron DeSantis's term-limited exit opens one of the most competitive Republican primaries in the country. Florida's recent shift to R+3 makes the general less competitive than it was in 2018 or 2022, but the GOP primary features a high-profile field including Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, and possibly First Lady Casey DeSantis.
Georgia Governor 2026
Brian Kemp is term-limited. Georgia has shifted from R+6 to R+3 since 2016, and Stacey Abrams — who lost to Kemp twice — has the option of a third run. The Republican primary features Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and AG Chris Carr, two distinct Republican profiles.
Illinois Governor 2026
JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.
Michigan Governor 2026
Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Michigan is genuinely a tossup — EVEN on Cook PVI — and the 2026 race is the most competitive open-seat contest outside Florida. Democrats will nominate a candidate to succeed Whitmer; Republicans have a strong field including US Rep. John James.
New York Governor 2026
Kathy Hochul's 2022 6-point win over Lee Zeldin was the tightest New York gubernatorial race since 1994. Her 2026 re-election is Democratic-favored but not safe — D+10 PVI pricing could be offset by a weak incumbency profile and a strong Republican recruit.
Ohio Governor 2026
Mike DeWine is term-limited. Ohio has shifted Republican, but open-seat gubernatorial races historically tighten from incumbent-landslide baselines. The Republican primary is the decisive contest, with Vivek Ramaswamy the current Polymarket favorite.
Pennsylvania Governor 2026
Josh Shapiro's 14.8-point 2022 win was the largest Pennsylvania gubernatorial margin in 72 years, and his approval ratings have stayed above 55%. Shapiro is running for re-election. Barring a Republican recruit upset, 2026 is his to lose — though he may also run for 2028 president, creating governance speculation.
Texas Governor 2026
Greg Abbott is expected to seek a fourth term, though the possibility of a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick adds uncertainty. The general election is Republican-leaning but reliably within single digits; Texas Democrats have closed the gap from 13 points (2014) to 11 (2022) and continue to invest statewide.
Wisconsin Governor 2026
Tony Evers is undecided on a third term. Wisconsin is R+2 and the gubernatorial margin has been under 4 points in three consecutive cycles. If Evers runs, the race is a narrow Democratic hold; if he retires, it is a genuine tossup.
Frequently asked questions
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- 01.Cook Political Report — 2026 Governor RatingsExpert ratings
- 02.Sabato's Crystal BallAcademic forecast
- 03.
- 04.Polymarket political marketsLive markets
- 05.Our methodologyInternal