2026 Wisconsin Gubernatorial Election Odds
Tony Evers is undecided on a third term. Wisconsin is R+2 and the gubernatorial margin has been under 4 points in three consecutive cycles. If Evers runs, the race is a narrow Democratic hold; if he retires, it is a genuine tossup.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Tony Evers is undecided on a third term. Wisconsin is R+2 and the gubernatorial margin has been under 4 points in three consecutive cycles. If Evers runs, the race is a narrow Democratic hold; if he retires, it is a genuine tossup.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+2
- Rating: Tossup
- Incumbent: Tony Evers (Democratic) — undecided
- Prior result (2022): Tony Evers (Democratic) won by 3.4 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Tony Evers, Sara Rodriguez, Mandela Barnes.
Republican field: Tim Michels, Rebecca Kleefisch, Eric Hovde.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Evers announcement timing — typically spring 2026 for year-prior decisions
- Michels vs Hovde in a hypothetical Republican primary
- Milwaukee turnout — Democrats need 50%+ of city vote
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal