The election
is a number.
Live Polymarket & Kalshi odds for every major election and policy market — with editorial depth for readers who take prediction markets seriously.
Top political markets
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Yes | 100% | April 15, 2026 | $20.8M | polymarket |
 | Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this week? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $3.8M | polymarket |
 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | No | 99% | April 12, 2026 | $24.4M | polymarket |
 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 94% | November 7, 2028 | $11.1M | polymarket |
 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 83% | November 7, 2028 | $15.5M | polymarket |
 | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | No | 90% | November 7, 2028 | $8.0M | polymarket |
 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Yes | 99% | April 12, 2026 | $21.3M | polymarket |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | No | 72% | November 7, 2028 | $23.9M | polymarket |
The market is not a prediction. It is a continuously-updated weighted average of every forecast, rumor, piece of polling, and piece of news that thousands of traders have priced into a contract.
Upcoming elections
All races →Katie Hobbs won the 2022 race by 0.7 points — the closest Arizona gubernatorial race in modern history. She is running for re-election. Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee, has floated another run; Lake's 2024 US Senate loss complicates that calculus.
Gavin Newsom is term-limited, opening California's most competitive Democratic primary in a generation. The general election is a formality — the D+13 partisan lean means the Democratic nominee is the heavy Polymarket favorite — but the primary field is crowded and genuinely contested.
Ron DeSantis's term-limited exit opens one of the most competitive Republican primaries in the country. Florida's recent shift to R+3 makes the general less competitive than it was in 2018 or 2022, but the GOP primary features a high-profile field including Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, and possibly First Lady Casey DeSantis.
Brian Kemp is term-limited. Georgia has shifted from R+6 to R+3 since 2016, and Stacey Abrams — who lost to Kemp twice — has the option of a third run. The Republican primary features Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and AG Chris Carr, two distinct Republican profiles.
JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.
Gretchen Whitmer is term-limited. Michigan is genuinely a tossup — EVEN on Cook PVI — and the 2026 race is the most competitive open-seat contest outside Florida. Democrats will nominate a candidate to succeed Whitmer; Republicans have a strong field including US Rep. John James.