2026 Florida Gubernatorial Election Odds
Ron DeSantis's term-limited exit opens one of the most competitive Republican primaries in the country. Florida's recent shift to R+3 makes the general less competitive than it was in 2018 or 2022, but the GOP primary features a high-profile field including Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, and possibly First Lady Casey DeSantis.
Odds over time
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Ron DeSantis's term-limited exit opens one of the most competitive Republican primaries in the country. Florida's recent shift to R+3 makes the general less competitive than it was in 2018 or 2022, but the GOP primary features a high-profile field including Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, and possibly First Lady Casey DeSantis.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+3
- Rating: Likely R
- Incumbent: Ron DeSantis (Republican) — term limited
- Prior result (2022): Ron DeSantis (Republican) won by 19.4 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Charlie Crist, Nikki Fried, Jared Moskowitz, Maxwell Frost.
Republican field: Byron Donalds, Wilton Simpson, Jimmy Patronis, Casey DeSantis.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Trump endorsement in the Republican primary — will substantially move the market
- Casey DeSantis decision (in or out) — removes or adds a wildcard
- Q2-Q3 2026 Republican fundraising: Donalds vs Simpson vs Patronis
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal