2026 Senate
Election Odds.
Who controls the Senate after 2026? State-by-state Polymarket and Kalshi odds for every competitive race, plus the chamber-control market that ties them together.
Race ratings
| State | Incumbent | Status | PVI | Prior margin | Rating | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska | Dan Sullivan | running | R+8 | R+12.7 | Likely R | Odds → |
| Arizona | Mark Kelly | running | R+2 | D+4.9 | Lean D | Odds → |
| Colorado | Michael Bennet | running | D+3 | D+14.3 | Solid D | Odds → |
| Florida | Rick Scott | running | R+3 | R+12.9 | Solid R | Odds → |
| Georgia | Jon Ossoff | running | R+3 | D+1.2 | Tossup | Odds → |
| Idaho | Jim Risch | running | R+18 | R+29.2 | Solid R | Odds → |
| Iowa | Joni Ernst | running | R+6 | R+6.6 | Likely R | Odds → |
| Kentucky | Mitch McConnell | retiring | R+16 | R+19.9 | Solid R | Odds → |
| Louisiana | Bill Cassidy | running | R+12 | R+40.3 | Solid R | Odds → |
| Maine | Susan Collins | running | D+2 | R+8.6 | Lean R | Odds → |
| Michigan | Gary Peters (seat) | retiring | EVEN | D+1.7 | Tossup | Odds → |
| Minnesota | Tina Smith | running | D+1 | D+5.2 | Likely D | Odds → |
| Montana | Steve Daines | running | R+11 | R+10.0 | Likely R | Odds → |
| Nevada | Jacky Rosen | running | R+2 | D+1.6 | Tossup | Odds → |
| New Hampshire | Jeanne Shaheen | retiring | D+1 | D+15.6 | Lean D | Odds → |
| North Carolina | Thom Tillis | running | R+3 | R+1.7 | Lean R | Odds → |
| Ohio | Sherrod Brown (seat) | retiring | R+6 | R+6.6 | Lean R | Odds → |
| Pennsylvania | John Fetterman | running | R+1 | D+4.9 | Lean D | Odds → |
| Texas | John Cornyn | running | R+5 | R+9.7 | Likely R | Odds → |
| West Virginia | Shelley Moore Capito | running | R+23 | R+43.1 | Solid R | Odds → |
Three races decide the Senate.
Three states are genuine coin flips. If Democrats sweep them, they have a narrow path to the majority. If Republicans sweep, they entrench their hold. Any 2-1 split produces a close chamber margin that will turn on the least-watched of the three.
Retirements reshape the map.
Open seats remove incumbent advantage and tend to revert toward state partisan baselines. 2026 sees retirements in Michigan (Peters, D), New Hampshire (Shaheen, D), and Kentucky (McConnell, R). Each creates a distinctively different race.
Track all 33 Senate races and the chamber-control market live on Polymarket and Kalshi. US readers: Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and lists several Senate markets legally.
State-by-state
Alaska Senate 2026
Sullivan is a safely-favored incumbent in a ranked-choice state. Independent or Democratic insurgent potential is always on the table in Alaska but rarely materializes at Senate level.
Arizona Senate 2026
Kelly is Arizona Democrats’ strongest statewide incumbent. His astronaut profile and disciplined campaign style have produced two wins. Republican recruitment quality determines margin.
Colorado Senate 2026
Bennet is a safe-favorite incumbent in a state that has trended Democratic. Republicans have had recruitment difficulties here through the 2010s and 2020s.
Florida Senate 2026
Scott's 2024 win (12.9-point margin) mirrors Florida's rightward shift. Democrats have essentially written off the state for statewide races in the short term. Primary is the interesting question.
Georgia Senate 2026
Ossoff is the 2026 cycle’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Brian Kemp’s possible entry would make this the marquee race of 2026. Georgia is genuinely tossup (R+3 PVI, but Biden-2020 + Trump-2024 switches in back-to-back cycles).
Idaho Senate 2026
Risch is safe; Idaho is among the most Republican states in the nation.
Iowa Senate 2026
Ernst won a tougher-than-expected 2020 race. Iowa has shifted right in the Trump era; Republicans should hold absent a candidate-quality collapse. Democrats are recruiting State Auditor Rob Sand, who has won statewide.
Kentucky Senate 2026
McConnell's retirement creates the cycle's most interesting Republican primary. Kentucky is safely Republican, but the primary choice shapes Senate leadership dynamics in Washington.
Louisiana Senate 2026
Cassidy's impeachment vote in 2021 draws primary challenges. Louisiana's jungle primary format means intra-party dynamics dominate this race.
Maine Senate 2026
Collins is the GOP's most durable New England incumbent. Her 2020 re-election (8.6-point win) exceeded every poll and model. If Governor Janet Mills runs, the race becomes genuinely competitive; otherwise Collins remains a solid favorite.
Michigan Senate 2026
Peters’ retirement creates a Democratic open-seat problem in an EVEN state. Michigan just flipped Republican in the 2024 Senate race (Rogers-Slotkin was 0.3 points). 2026 Senate + 2026 Governor will both be competitive.
Minnesota Senate 2026
Smith is the narrowly-favored incumbent. Minnesota has tightened in the Trump era (Trump won the state in 2024) but retains a narrow Democratic lean. Republican recruitment remains thin.
Montana Senate 2026
Daines is favored but Montana occasionally bucks its partisan lean (Tester held a Senate seat through 2024). Democratic recruitment is the decisive variable.
Nevada Senate 2026
Rosen just won 2024 by 1.6 points despite Trump carrying Nevada. The state has shifted faster right than most observers expected. Rosen's 2026 re-election is a genuine tossup.
New Hampshire Senate 2026
Shaheen's retirement is a major 2026 Democratic vulnerability. Governor Chris Sununu (R) is the strongest potential Republican recruit. If he runs, this race becomes a tossup.
North Carolina Senate 2026
Tillis, who has drawn conservative ire for infrastructure and immigration votes, faces a primary challenge and potentially former Governor Roy Cooper in the general. Cooper would make this a top-tier Democratic pickup target.
Ohio Senate 2026
Sherrod Brown's seat (won 2024 by Bernie Moreno after Brown's loss) is technically open under a different schedule, but the adjacent 2026 Ohio Senate cycle features Vance-era dynamics. Republican-lean in modern Ohio; Democrats have had candidate-quality problems statewide for a decade.
Pennsylvania Senate 2026
Fetterman's first re-election. His profile has shifted more moderate than his 2022 campaign; Republicans will test whether that alienates the Democratic base. Swing-state fundamentals apply.
Texas Senate 2026
Cornyn is the GOP leadership's preferred 2026 incumbent. Texas remains Republican-lean but tightening. Allred's 2024 performance (8.5-point loss to Cruz) is the Democratic ceiling to watch.
West Virginia Senate 2026
Capito is uncontested within the GOP and faces no Democratic threat. Election-day formality.
Frequently asked questions
Will Democrats or Republicans control the Senate after 2026?+
Which 2026 Senate race is the most competitive?+
How many 2026 Senate seats are up?+
When is the 2026 Senate election date?+
Can I bet on 2026 Senate elections in the US?+
- 01.Cook Political Report — 2026 Senate RatingsExpert ratings
- 02.Ballotpedia — 2026 Senate electionsReference
- 03.Polymarket political marketsLive markets
- 04.Our methodologyInternal