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2026 Texas Senate Election Odds
Cornyn is the GOP leadership's preferred 2026 incumbent. Texas remains Republican-lean but tightening. Allred's 2024 performance (8.5-point loss to Cruz) is the Democratic ceiling to watch.
Odds over time
Filed
Awaiting market data
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Cornyn is the GOP leadership's preferred 2026 incumbent. Texas remains Republican-lean but tightening. Allred's 2024 performance (8.5-point loss to Cruz) is the Democratic ceiling to watch.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+5
- Rating: Likely R
- Incumbent: John Cornyn (Republican) — running
- Prior result (2020): John Cornyn (Republican) won by 9.7 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Colin Allred, Joaquin Castro.
Republican field: John Cornyn.
Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 95% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
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Readers Ask
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2026 Texas US Senate Election?+
The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.
When is the 2026 Texas US Senate Election?+
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.
Citations
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal