Election coverage|Upcoming|Election Day November 3, 2026

2026 Iowa Senate Election Odds

Ernst won a tougher-than-expected 2020 race. Iowa has shifted right in the Trump era; Republicans should hold absent a candidate-quality collapse. Democrats are recruiting State Auditor Rob Sand, who has won statewide.

Odds over time

Filed just now

Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Race at a glance

Cook PVI: R+6
Rating: Likely R
Incumbent: Joni Ernst (Republican) — running
Prior result (2020): Joni Ernst (Republican) won by 6.6 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Rob Sand, Zach Wahls.

Republican field: Joni Ernst.

Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.

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Live markets for this race

	Market	Leading	Prob.	Closes	Volume	Source
§	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	88%	November 3, 2026	$998k	polymarket
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§	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	99%	May 19, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	No	89%	September 20, 2026	$991	polymarket

2026 US Senate Elections

The 2026 US Senate election will determine control of the chamber for the second half of Trump's term. 33 seats are up, with majority control in play.

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2026 Texas US Senate Election

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2026 Alaska US Senate Election

Sullivan is a safely-favored incumbent in a ranked-choice state. Independent or Democratic insurgent potential is always on the table in Alaska but rarely materializes at Senate level.

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2026 Montana US Senate Election

Daines is favored but Montana occasionally bucks its partisan lean (Tester held a Senate seat through 2024). Democratic recruitment is the decisive variable.

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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 Iowa US Senate Election?+

The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.

When is the 2026 Iowa US Senate Election?+

Election day is November 3, 2026.

How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+

Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.

Can I bet on this election in the US?+

Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.

How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+

A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.

Citations

01.
FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
02.
Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
03.
RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
04.
Our methodologyInternal