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2026 Montana Senate Election Odds
Daines is favored but Montana occasionally bucks its partisan lean (Tester held a Senate seat through 2024). Democratic recruitment is the decisive variable.
Odds over time
Filed
Awaiting market data
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Daines is favored but Montana occasionally bucks its partisan lean (Tester held a Senate seat through 2024). Democratic recruitment is the decisive variable.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+11
- Rating: Likely R
- Incumbent: Steve Daines (Republican) — running
- Prior result (2020): Steve Daines (Republican) won by 10 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Ryan Busse.
Republican field: Steve Daines.
Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | No | 89% | September 20, 2026 | $991 | polymarket |
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Readers Ask
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2026 Montana US Senate Election?+
The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.
When is the 2026 Montana US Senate Election?+
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.
Citations
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal