Analysis
Weekly biggest-movers, deep-dive race analysis, and methodology-driven commentary on how Polymarket and Kalshi pricing tracks against polls.
Does Polymarket actually predict elections well? A calibration-based review of the 2024 cycle and earlier races, comparing market-implied odds to eventual outcomes.
A live read on the 2028 US presidential race as priced by Polymarket and Kalshi: general-election favorites, nominee markets, party-control contracts, and how to interpret the numbers.
A head-to-head on Polymarket and Kalshi for political forecasting: US legality, market depth, fees, coverage, and where each platform wins. Updated April 2026.
Zohran Mamdani's NYC mayoral odds jumped 11 points on Polymarket after a debate performance; Ohio's open Senate seat tightened as a late entrant scrambled field; Fed-chair-successor markets reacted to Powell telegraph.