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2026 Arizona Senate Election Odds

Kelly is Arizona Democrats’ strongest statewide incumbent. His astronaut profile and disciplined campaign style have produced two wins. Republican recruitment quality determines margin.

Odds over time

Filed
Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Kelly is Arizona Democrats’ strongest statewide incumbent. His astronaut profile and disciplined campaign style have produced two wins. Republican recruitment quality determines margin.

Race at a glance

  • Cook PVI: R+2
  • Rating: Lean D
  • Incumbent: Mark Kelly (Democratic) — running
  • Prior result (2022): Mark Kelly (Democratic) won by 4.9 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Mark Kelly.

Republican field: Blake Masters, Kari Lake, Andy Biggs.

Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.

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Live markets for this race

MarketLeadingProb.ClosesVolumeSource
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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo88%November 3, 2026$998kpolymarket
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Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?No99%May 19, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 Arizona US Senate Election?+
The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.
When is the 2026 Arizona US Senate Election?+
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.
Citations
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