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2026 New Hampshire Senate Election Odds

Shaheen's retirement is a major 2026 Democratic vulnerability. Governor Chris Sununu (R) is the strongest potential Republican recruit. If he runs, this race becomes a tossup.

Odds over time

Filed
Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Shaheen's retirement is a major 2026 Democratic vulnerability. Governor Chris Sununu (R) is the strongest potential Republican recruit. If he runs, this race becomes a tossup.

Race at a glance

  • Cook PVI: D+1
  • Rating: Lean D
  • Incumbent: Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic) — retiring
  • Prior result (2020): Jeanne Shaheen (Democratic) won by 15.6 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Chris Pappas, Maggie Goodlander.

Republican field: Chris Sununu, Scott Brown.

Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.

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Live markets for this race

MarketLeadingProb.ClosesVolumeSource
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2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo88%November 3, 2026$998kpolymarket
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Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?No100%April 12, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?No70%June 3, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?No96%October 3, 2026$993polymarket
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Will Trump say "Radical Left" during TPUSA events on April 17?Yes80%April 17, 2026$993polymarket
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Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?No99%May 19, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 New Hampshire US Senate Election?+
The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.
When is the 2026 New Hampshire US Senate Election?+
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.
Citations
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