2026 Minnesota Senate Election Odds
Smith is the narrowly-favored incumbent. Minnesota has tightened in the Trump era (Trump won the state in 2024) but retains a narrow Democratic lean. Republican recruitment remains thin.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Smith is the narrowly-favored incumbent. Minnesota has tightened in the Trump era (Trump won the state in 2024) but retains a narrow Democratic lean. Republican recruitment remains thin.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: D+1
- Rating: Likely D
- Incumbent: Tina Smith (Democratic) — running
- Prior result (2020): Tina Smith (Democratic) won by 5.2 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Tina Smith.
Republican field: Royce White, Joe Fraser.
Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal