2026 Florida Senate Election Odds
Scott's 2024 win (12.9-point margin) mirrors Florida's rightward shift. Democrats have essentially written off the state for statewide races in the short term. Primary is the interesting question.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Scott's 2024 win (12.9-point margin) mirrors Florida's rightward shift. Democrats have essentially written off the state for statewide races in the short term. Primary is the interesting question.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+3
- Rating: Solid R
- Incumbent: Rick Scott (Republican) — running
- Prior result (2024): Rick Scott (Republican) won by 12.9 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (rematch unlikely).
Republican field: Rick Scott.
Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? | No | 89% | September 20, 2026 | $991 | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal