Election coverage|Upcoming|Election Day November 3, 2026

2026 Michigan Senate Election Odds

Peters’ retirement creates a Democratic open-seat problem in an EVEN state. Michigan just flipped Republican in the 2024 Senate race (Rogers-Slotkin was 0.3 points). 2026 Senate + 2026 Governor will both be competitive.

Odds over time

Filed just now

Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Race at a glance

Cook PVI: EVEN
Rating: Tossup
Incumbent: Gary Peters (seat) (Democratic) — retiring
Prior result (2020): Gary Peters (Democratic) won by 1.7 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Mallory McMorrow, Haley Stevens, Hill Harper.

Republican field: Mike Rogers, Peter Meijer.

Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.

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Live markets for this race

	Market	Leading	Prob.	Closes	Volume	Source
§	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	88%	November 3, 2026	$998k	polymarket
§	Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?	No	100%	April 12, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	100%	April 12, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	No	77%	June 3, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	96%	October 3, 2026	$993	polymarket
§	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	99%	May 19, 2026	$10k	polymarket

2026 US Senate Elections

The 2026 US Senate election will determine control of the chamber for the second half of Trump's term. 33 seats are up, with majority control in play.

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2026 Georgia US Senate Election

Ossoff is the 2026 cycle’s most vulnerable Democratic incumbent. Brian Kemp’s possible entry would make this the marquee race of 2026. Georgia is genuinely tossup (R+3 PVI, but Biden-2020 + Trump-2024 switches in back-to-back cycles).

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2026 Nevada US Senate Election

Rosen just won 2024 by 1.6 points despite Trump carrying Nevada. The state has shifted faster right than most observers expected. Rosen's 2026 re-election is a genuine tossup.

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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 Michigan US Senate Election?+

The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.

When is the 2026 Michigan US Senate Election?+

Election day is November 3, 2026.

How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+

Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.

Can I bet on this election in the US?+

Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.

How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+

A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.

Citations

01.
FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
02.
Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
03.
RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
04.
Our methodologyInternal