Election coverage|Upcoming|Election Day November 3, 2026

2026 North Carolina Senate Election Odds

Tillis, who has drawn conservative ire for infrastructure and immigration votes, faces a primary challenge and potentially former Governor Roy Cooper in the general. Cooper would make this a top-tier Democratic pickup target.

Odds over time

Filed just now

Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Race at a glance

Cook PVI: R+3
Rating: Lean R
Incumbent: Thom Tillis (Republican) — running
Prior result (2020): Thom Tillis (Republican) won by 1.7 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Roy Cooper, Wiley Nickel.

Republican field: Thom Tillis.

Senate chamber control is the headline question: 2026 US Senate hub.

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Live markets for this race

	Market	Leading	Prob.	Closes	Volume	Source
§	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	88%	November 3, 2026	$998k	polymarket
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§	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	99%	May 19, 2026	$10k	polymarket

2026 US Senate Elections

The 2026 US Senate election will determine control of the chamber for the second half of Trump's term. 33 seats are up, with majority control in play.

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2026 Ohio US Senate Election

Sherrod Brown's seat (won 2024 by Bernie Moreno after Brown's loss) is technically open under a different schedule, but the adjacent 2026 Ohio Senate cycle features Vance-era dynamics. Republican-lean in modern Ohio; Democrats have had candidate-quality problems statewide for a decade.

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2026 Maine US Senate Election

Collins is the GOP's most durable New England incumbent. Her 2020 re-election (8.6-point win) exceeded every poll and model. If Governor Janet Mills runs, the race becomes genuinely competitive; otherwise Collins remains a solid favorite.

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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 North Carolina US Senate Election?+

The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.

When is the 2026 North Carolina US Senate Election?+

Election day is November 3, 2026.

How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+

Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.

Can I bet on this election in the US?+

Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.

How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+

A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.

Citations

01.
FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
02.
Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
03.
RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
04.
Our methodologyInternal