2026 Texas Gubernatorial Election Odds
Greg Abbott is expected to seek a fourth term, though the possibility of a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick adds uncertainty. The general election is Republican-leaning but reliably within single digits; Texas Democrats have closed the gap from 13 points (2014) to 11 (2022) and continue to invest statewide.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Greg Abbott is expected to seek a fourth term, though the possibility of a primary challenge from Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick adds uncertainty. The general election is Republican-leaning but reliably within single digits; Texas Democrats have closed the gap from 13 points (2014) to 11 (2022) and continue to invest statewide.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+5
- Rating: Likely R
- Incumbent: Greg Abbott (Republican) — undecided
- Prior result (2022): Greg Abbott (Republican) won by 11 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Colin Allred, Joaquin Castro, James Talarico.
Republican field: Greg Abbott, Dan Patrick.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Abbott's announcement — if he declines, Patrick leads the primary
- Colin Allred candidacy confirmation and early fundraising
- Republican primary dynamics if Abbott retires
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal