2025 NYC Mayor Election Odds
The 2025 New York City mayoral election occurs on November 4, 2025. The Democratic primary in June is historically decisive in general-election terms.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Candidates
This page tracks the 2025 nyc mayoral election across prediction markets. Polymarket typically opens a binary or categorical market for the headline question — who wins — and then adds a cluster of satellite markets: party control, primary winners, vote margins. Kalshi's political-event contracts add CFTC-regulated US access to many of the same questions.
Editorial expansion lives alongside the live odds: historical context, candidate biographies, key calendar dates, and comparisons between Polymarket's implied probability and polling aggregators such as 538, RealClearPolitics, Cook Political Report, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.
The previous NYC mayoral election (2021) saw Eric Adams win the Democratic primary narrowly, then cruise the general. Democratic primary dynamics dominate.
Trade or track this race live. We earn a small commission when readers sign up through our links — it does not influence editorial coverage.
Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?? | No | 87% | — | $998 | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 95% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
- Democratic primary
- General Election Day
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election?+
When is the 2025 NYC Mayoral Election?+
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal