2026 Illinois Gubernatorial Election Odds
JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: D+7
- Rating: Likely D
- Incumbent: JB Pritzker (Democratic) — undecided
- Prior result (2022): JB Pritzker (Democratic) won by 12.5 points
Candidates
Democratic field: JB Pritzker, Juliana Stratton, Tammy Duckworth.
Republican field: Darren Bailey, Scott Bessent.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Pritzker 2026 decision — affects 2028 presidential pricing
- Stratton's profile-building ahead of possible succession
- Duckworth Senate-to-Governor speculation
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2026 Illinois Gubernatorial Election?+
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal