Election coverage|Upcoming|Election Day November 3, 2026

2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election Odds

Josh Shapiro's 14.8-point 2022 win was the largest Pennsylvania gubernatorial margin in 72 years, and his approval ratings have stayed above 55%. Shapiro is running for re-election. Barring a Republican recruit upset, 2026 is his to lose — though he may also run for 2028 president, creating governance speculation.

Odds over time

Filed just now

Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Race at a glance

Cook PVI: R+1
Rating: Likely D
Incumbent: Josh Shapiro (Democratic) — running
Prior result (2022): Josh Shapiro (Democratic) won by 14.8 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Josh Shapiro.

Republican field: Doug Mastriano, Stacy Garrity, Heather Heidelbaugh.

What Polymarket traders are watching

Shapiro 2028 presidential signaling — affects his campaign focus
Republican primary recruitment quality
Shapiro's approval holds above 55%?

Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.

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Live markets for this race

	Market	Leading	Prob.	Closes	Volume	Source
§	2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	No	88%	November 3, 2026	$998k	polymarket
§	Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff?	No	100%	April 12, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	100%	April 12, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections?	No	77%	June 3, 2026	$10k	polymarket
§	Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election?	No	96%	October 3, 2026	$993	polymarket
§	Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election?	No	99%	May 19, 2026	$10k	polymarket

2026 Gubernatorial Elections

36 state governor offices are up in 2026. Major open seats (California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio) are term-limited incumbents and feature the most competitive primaries.

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2026 Illinois Gubernatorial Election

JB Pritzker is undecided on a third term — he is also a 2028 presidential candidate in Polymarket's top tier. Illinois is D+7, so either a third-term Pritzker or a successor Democrat is favored to win; the question is whether Pritzker runs or positions for a presidential bid.

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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election?+

The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.

When is the 2026 Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election?+

Election day is November 3, 2026.

How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+

Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.

Can I bet on this election in the US?+

Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.

How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+

A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.

Citations

01.
FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
02.
Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
03.
RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
04.
Our methodologyInternal