Next Fed Chair Odds (2026)
Jerome Powell's Fed Chair term ends May 2026. The president nominates the successor, subject to Senate confirmation. Multiple candidates trade in parallel.
Probability over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
This market tracks one of the highest-stakes policy questions on Polymarket. Traders price in the odds based on headlines, committee votes, executive actions, and prior precedent. The chart above shows how sentiment has shifted since the market opened.
Interpreting these markets requires care: implied probabilities reflect collective trader consensus given public information. Thin liquidity can produce noisy prices. We cross-reference major policy markets against expert sources like Brookings, CRS, and relevant committee transcripts before drawing conclusions.
Powell was first nominated by Trump in 2017 and renominated by Biden in 2021. The decision to reappoint or replace the Fed Chair is one of the most consequential monetary-policy choices a president makes.
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Frequently asked questions
What is the market implying for next fed chair odds (2026)?+
How do policy markets resolve?+
Is this market available on Kalshi?+
- 01.Our methodologyInternal