Government Shutdown 2026 Odds
The US federal government fiscal year ends September 30. If Congress fails to pass appropriations (or a continuing resolution), agencies shut down. Polymarket prices this outcome continuously.
Probability over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
This market tracks one of the highest-stakes policy questions on Polymarket. Traders price in the odds based on headlines, committee votes, executive actions, and prior precedent. The chart above shows how sentiment has shifted since the market opened.
Interpreting these markets requires care: implied probabilities reflect collective trader consensus given public information. Thin liquidity can produce noisy prices. We cross-reference major policy markets against expert sources like Brookings, CRS, and relevant committee transcripts before drawing conclusions.
Recent shutdowns: 2018-19 (35 days, longest ever), 2013 (16 days), 1995-96 (21 + 5 days). Shutdowns have occurred roughly every 2-3 years since 1995. Polymarket has priced shutdown markets since 2022 with varying accuracy depending on the specifics of each budget fight.
Track this market live and compare Polymarket with Kalshi's US-regulated equivalent.
Frequently asked questions
What is the market implying for government shutdown 2026 odds?+
How do policy markets resolve?+
Is this market available on Kalshi?+
- 01.Our methodologyInternal