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2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Election Odds

Katie Hobbs won the 2022 race by 0.7 points — the closest Arizona gubernatorial race in modern history. She is running for re-election. Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee, has floated another run; Lake's 2024 US Senate loss complicates that calculus.

Odds over time

Filed
Awaiting market data

Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.

Katie Hobbs won the 2022 race by 0.7 points — the closest Arizona gubernatorial race in modern history. She is running for re-election. Kari Lake, the 2022 Republican nominee, has floated another run; Lake's 2024 US Senate loss complicates that calculus.

Race at a glance

  • Cook PVI: R+2
  • Rating: Tossup
  • Incumbent: Katie Hobbs (Democratic) — running
  • Prior result (2022): Katie Hobbs (Democratic) won by 0.7 points

Candidates

Democratic field: Katie Hobbs.

Republican field: Kari Lake, Karrin Taylor Robson, Andy Biggs.

What Polymarket traders are watching

  • Kari Lake announcement (in or out)
  • Robson vs Biggs dynamics if Lake passes
  • Hobbs approval above 52%? Drifting upward or downward?

Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.

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Live markets for this race

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Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

Who is favored to win the 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Election?+
The Polymarket market for this race has not opened yet or no current favorite is available. Check the live odds above once markets are active.
When is the 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Election?+
Election day is November 3, 2026.
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Polymarket correctly priced the 2024 US presidential election, showing Trump as favored weeks before Election Day when traditional models still leaned toward Harris. Historical accuracy varies by race; see our track record.
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
Polymarket is not legal for US residents. Kalshi is CFTC-regulated and offers many political-adjacent event contracts legally in all 50 states. Where Kalshi lists this race, we link to it above.
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
A YES share trading at $0.42 implies a 42% probability. See our methodology page for the full explanation of how market prices map to probabilities.
Citations
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