2026 California Gubernatorial Election Odds
Gavin Newsom is term-limited, opening California's most competitive Democratic primary in a generation. The general election is a formality — the D+13 partisan lean means the Democratic nominee is the heavy Polymarket favorite — but the primary field is crowded and genuinely contested.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Gavin Newsom is term-limited, opening California's most competitive Democratic primary in a generation. The general election is a formality — the D+13 partisan lean means the Democratic nominee is the heavy Polymarket favorite — but the primary field is crowded and genuinely contested.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: D+13
- Rating: Solid D
- Incumbent: Gavin Newsom (Democratic) — term limited
- Prior result (2022): Gavin Newsom (Democratic) won by 18.6 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Katie Porter, Xavier Becerra, Antonio Villaraigosa, Eleni Kounalakis, Toni Atkins, Rob Bonta.
Republican field: Steve Hilton, Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Q2/Q3 2026 fundraising reports — the money gap will shape the Polymarket favorite
- California Democratic Party endorsements in late 2026 / early 2027
- Major labor endorsements: SEIU, CTA, AFSCME
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
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Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal