2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election Odds
Mike DeWine is term-limited. Ohio has shifted Republican, but open-seat gubernatorial races historically tighten from incumbent-landslide baselines. The Republican primary is the decisive contest, with Vivek Ramaswamy the current Polymarket favorite.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Mike DeWine is term-limited. Ohio has shifted Republican, but open-seat gubernatorial races historically tighten from incumbent-landslide baselines. The Republican primary is the decisive contest, with Vivek Ramaswamy the current Polymarket favorite.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: R+6
- Rating: Lean R
- Incumbent: Mike DeWine (Republican) — term limited
- Prior result (2022): Mike DeWine (Republican) won by 25.4 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Nan Whaley, Tim Ryan, Emilia Sykes.
Republican field: Vivek Ramaswamy, Dave Yost, Frank LaRose, Jon Husted.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Ramaswamy vs Husted in the Republican primary — Trump endorsement decisive
- Tim Ryan decision on Democratic candidacy
- Vance administration performance (JD Vance is Ohio's senator turned VP)
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
Trade or track this race live. We earn a small commission when readers sign up through our links — it does not influence editorial coverage.
Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? | No | 97% | March 31, 2026 | $99k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election?+
When is the 2026 Ohio Gubernatorial Election?+
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal