2026 New York Gubernatorial Election Odds
Kathy Hochul's 2022 6-point win over Lee Zeldin was the tightest New York gubernatorial race since 1994. Her 2026 re-election is Democratic-favored but not safe — D+10 PVI pricing could be offset by a weak incumbency profile and a strong Republican recruit.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Kathy Hochul's 2022 6-point win over Lee Zeldin was the tightest New York gubernatorial race since 1994. Her 2026 re-election is Democratic-favored but not safe — D+10 PVI pricing could be offset by a weak incumbency profile and a strong Republican recruit.
Race at a glance
- Cook PVI: D+10
- Rating: Lean D
- Incumbent: Kathy Hochul (Democratic) — running
- Prior result (2022): Kathy Hochul (Democratic) won by 5.8 points
Candidates
Democratic field: Kathy Hochul, Ritchie Torres, Antonio Delgado.
Republican field: Mike Lawler, Elise Stefanik, Bruce Blakeman.
What Polymarket traders are watching
- Republican primary: Lawler (crossover profile) vs Stefanik (MAGA profile)
- Ritchie Torres decision on Democratic primary entry
- NYC crime salience in 2026 polling — drives suburban swing
Full editorial analysis of the 2026 map: 2026 governors hub.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will José Williams finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 77% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
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- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal