2028 Republican Presidential Primary Odds
With Trump term-limited, the 2028 Republican presidential primary is open. Leading contenders are drawn from current Cabinet, governors, and senators.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
Candidates
Vice President of the United States
Governor of Florida
Former US Ambassador to the UN
US Secretary of State
US Senator from Texas
Candidate, Governor of Ohio
Former Governor of Virginia
Governor of Texas
Governor of Georgia
US Senator from South Carolina
US Senator from Missouri
US Secretary of Homeland Security
US Secretary of the Interior
Former Governor of New Hampshire
This page tracks the 2028 republican presidential primary across prediction markets. Polymarket typically opens a binary or categorical market for the headline question — who wins — and then adds a cluster of satellite markets: party control, primary winners, vote margins. Kalshi's political-event contracts add CFTC-regulated US access to many of the same questions.
Editorial expansion lives alongside the live odds: historical context, candidate biographies, key calendar dates, and comparisons between Polymarket's implied probability and polling aggregators such as 538, RealClearPolitics, Cook Political Report, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.
Trade or track this race live. We earn a small commission when readers sign up through our links — it does not influence editorial coverage.
Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 70% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Trump say "Radical Left" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 80% | April 17, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2028 Republican Presidential Primary?+
When is the 2028 Republican Presidential Primary?+
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Can I bet on this election in the US?+
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal