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political forecasts
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Donald Trump
Republican|President of the United States (second term)|Florida

Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the 47th and previously 45th President of the United States. Term-limited in 2028, he remains the most-referenced figure across political prediction markets — from general election pricing to cabinet speculation to impeachment markets.

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Wikipedia ↗Photo: Wikipedia / Wikimedia Commons

Markets mentioning Donald Trump

Ranked by trading volume. Aggregated live from Polymarket's gamma API.
MarketLeadingProb.ClosesVolumeSource
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Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?No66%December 31, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?No56%December 31, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Will Trump deport 800-900k people?No98%December 31, 2026$10kpolymarket
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Will Trump say "Radical Left" during TPUSA events on April 17?Yes80%April 17, 2026$993polymarket
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Trade the markets shown above. Donald Trump's odds move with news — the latest price is always live.

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About Donald Trump

Donald Trump is the 47th and previously 45th President of the United States. Term-limited in 2028, he remains the most-referenced figure across political prediction markets — from general election pricing to cabinet speculation to impeachment markets.

How prediction markets price Donald Trump

Prediction markets combine the views of thousands of traders into a single implied-probability estimate. For Donald Trump, the most-watched markets cover presidential nomination odds, general-election win probability, and relevant state-by-state contests. Prices move as events unfold: debates, endorsements, polling, fundraising reports, and judicial or investigative developments.

Polymarket vs Kalshi for Donald Trump

Polymarket, based offshore, historically has broader coverage but is not legal for US residents. Kalshi, which is CFTC-regulated and legal in all 50 US states, increasingly lists political-event contracts on major races. Where both platforms price the same outcome, we list both so readers can compare liquidity and pricing.

Readers Ask

Frequently asked questions

What are Donald Trump's current Polymarket odds?+
The most-traded market mentioning Donald Trump is "Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day of their next meeting in 2026?", currently leaning toward No.
Is Donald Trump running in 2028?+
See the live markets above for the most current trader consensus. Polymarket often opens speculative markets long before formal announcements.
Where can I follow Donald Trump's market odds?+
Polymarket lists political candidate markets at polymarket.com. Kalshi is the CFTC-regulated US alternative.
Citations