Next Supreme Court Vacancy

This market tracks one of the highest-stakes policy questions on Polymarket. Traders price in the odds based on headlines, committee votes, executive actions, and prior precedent. The chart above shows how sentiment has shifted since the market opened.

Interpreting these markets requires care: implied probabilities reflect collective trader consensus given public information. Thin liquidity can produce noisy prices. We cross-reference major policy markets against expert sources like Brookings, CRS, and relevant committee transcripts before drawing conclusions.

The Supreme Court saw a generation of change from 2020-2022 (Ginsburg, Breyer, Kennedy retirements, replaced by Barrett, Jackson, Kavanaugh). Remaining justices span a wide age range.