2027 Chicago Mayor Election Odds
Chicago Mayor is the next major municipal race in our coverage.
Odds over time
Live odds will appear here when a market opens on Polymarket or Kalshi. This page auto-updates as data becomes available.
This page tracks the 2027 chicago mayor election across prediction markets. Polymarket typically opens a binary or categorical market for the headline question — who wins — and then adds a cluster of satellite markets: party control, primary winners, vote margins. Kalshi's political-event contracts add CFTC-regulated US access to many of the same questions.
Editorial expansion lives alongside the live odds: historical context, candidate biographies, key calendar dates, and comparisons between Polymarket's implied probability and polling aggregators such as 538, RealClearPolitics, Cook Political Report, and Nate Silver's Silver Bulletin.
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Live markets for this race
| Market | Leading | Prob. | Closes | Volume | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
§ | 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | No | 88% | November 3, 2026 | $998k | polymarket |
§ | Will Rafael López Aliaga and Wolfgang Grozo advance to the runoff? | No | 100% | April 12, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will the People Power Party win 2 seats in South Korea’s June 3, 2026 parliamentary by-elections? | No | 70% | June 3, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
§ | Will Suverēnā Vara (SV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? | No | 96% | October 3, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Trump say "Radical Left" during TPUSA events on April 17? | Yes | 80% | April 17, 2026 | $993 | polymarket |
§ | Will Ken McFeeters win the 2026 Alabama Governor Republican primary election? | No | 99% | May 19, 2026 | $10k | polymarket |
Frequently asked questions
Who is favored to win the 2027 Chicago Mayor Election?+
When is the 2027 Chicago Mayor Election?+
How accurate is Polymarket for elections?+
Can I bet on this election in the US?+
How do I convert Polymarket prices to probabilities?+
- 01.FiveThirtyEight forecast archivePolling model
- 02.Cook Political ReportExpert ratings
- 03.RealClearPoliticsPolling aggregator
- 04.Our methodologyInternal