Methodology
How Political Forecasts interprets prediction-market data. These are our trust pages — explaining our approach, limits, and track record.
Kalshi & the CFTC: Why Kalshi Is Legal in the US
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated exchange for event contracts, legal in all 50 US states. Polymarket is not. Here's the regulatory landscape.
Our Track Record
A public ledger of Polymarket and Kalshi predictions vs actual outcomes, kept current as markets resolve.
How Polymarket Prices Map to Probability
A clear, worked explanation of how Polymarket and Kalshi prices convert to implied probability — and how well-calibrated those probabilities have been historically.
Polymarket vs Polls: When to Trust Which
Polls measure stated intent; prediction markets price outcomes. When they diverge, the divergence tells you something. Here's our framework.